Data dreams

It’s long past time to draw a line between actual data and fantasy “models” — and set public policy accordingly

Over on Facebook, I linked to an essay by the Swedish writer Malcom Kyeyune titled Why the Experts are Losing, which elicited this comment from a (dear) friend:

So, when dealing with complicated things, who should one listen to if not someone who actually knows the topic? And what should one look at besides data?

Many of the people who we have elevated to the position of “expert” are not experts at all. They are, to be blunt, fools. Photo by Rachel on Unsplash

The comment got me thinking about data.

Specifically, it got me thinking about a mistake that I think people make when they look at “data” and “research consensus” as the basis of their policy preferences.

Because of course we need to base policy on data.

But many people are making a huge mistake when they cite “data” — a mistake that is tied closely to our reliance on “experts.”

There is a WORLD of difference between “data” that is based on actual reality — meaning data collected on something that has happened — and “data” that is generated by computer modeling — meaning “data” that predicts something that is supposedly likely to happen in the future.

Models are not reality.

It’s my observation that many people overlook that distinction…

Continue reading

Dragons, courage, life

Maybe it’s better to run toward our dragons — instead of running away

In our stories, it is the hero that runs toward the dragon. So, question: what must you do to be a hero in our own story?

I’m struck, so often these days, by how afraid we are.

Why?

What are we so afraid of?

Why do we so often acquiesce to being fearful instead of challenging ourselves to overcome our fear and become the opposite? Brave, courageous?

I think about this question. A lot.

I believe it’s one of the most important questions we face today.

Let me me explain.

To start, we have to stop looking at things as if the truth is what is on the surface. We have to go deeper.

Continue reading

Adventure

As some of you know, my partner and I decided to make a pretty big change in our lives this year.

We sold our SoCal home and bought a piece of land in northeast Texas.

We’ll be building a new house there, but in the meantime…we are basically homeless. As in, we are currently sleeping most nights in a tent.

Luxury accommodations with an abundance of wildflowers.

Why did we do this? It was a combination of factors. The cost of living in our new home will be considerably lower. We appreciate that the state government here is more supportive of small businesses (no chance that Texas will pass legislation like AB5, which threw a wrench into my ability to do my contract writing work).

Our new home will give us more privacy and closeness to nature :)

We have room for a big garden, chickens, some fruit trees, and potentially other projects tbd.

Our neighbors are mostly quiet but a little bit curious.

There were other reasons behind our decision, as well.

It’s been only a week since we closed the door to our Pod, finished packing the car, and handed over the key of our house to our realtor. And I’ll be honest, it hasn’t all been exactly fun. Primitive camping is a chore. We have to carry in water and ice. It’s more humid here than we’re used to, and we aren’t yet acclimated. Little things crop up that test our patience (one of our air mattresses suddenly decided to develop a leak! Really???).

We miss seeing our friends. We made such great friends in Cali — we love and miss you guys.

But — and don’t ask me how this happened — one of the things my sweetheart and I have in common is that we don’t ever want to stop challenging ourselves.

Stove is lit …

So in a way, the discomfort we’re experiencing is the point. The human brain is a pretty adaptable piece of bio-machinery, but to keep growing, it needs to be challenged. It needs new problems to solve. By plucking ourselves out of one environment and setting ourselves down in one that is completely different, we’re forcing ourselves to adapt.

And we trust the pay off. We are surrounded by incredible beauty, here, and the people in our new community are incredible. We have so many new places to explore.

It’s not for everybody, but we are excited about this new chapter in our lives.

And once our house is built, our doors are open — so please plan to come visit us. Who knows, maybe you’ll like it so much you’ll decide to put down roots here yourself some day :)

Sunrise over our land

My father

He taught me how to shoot a basketball and hold a golf club, how to cast a fly rod and how to gut a fish. He’s the guy who would come quietly into my room when I was broken and sobbing and everything in the world was falling apart, and he’d put his arms around me and stroke my hair and somehow melt the grief back into acceptance and love. He’s the one who everyone said I took after, and I grew up knowing in my bones that it was true: the way we both loved dogs, and being in the woods, and history (my bookshelf full of the history books he read and then passed on to me!)

He was the type of father who had enough sense to step back and let me make mistakes—and we all know I went a little wild there, for a while—and trust that I’d learn from them and sort myself out, eventually, because above all else he knew that his trust was what I most needed to keep my feet under me as I felt my way through the dark.

He was always so very comfortable in himself. He was the guy who would sit with headphones on and music playing and yep, he’d sing along—loudly!—even though he could NOT carry a tune (oh my God he could not carry a tune!) and you’d peek around the corner at him and he’d look up and grin from ear to ear, so happy to be there “singing” along with that music. He was completely and happily comfortable with his awful spelling and the way he’d butcher words he knew from reading but not how to pronounce—butchering them a bit more on purpose just to show he knew it was funny, that he got the joke. When his hands curled up from the Dupuytrens he just shrugged, he never complained about it, he made up his mind that it was how things were, now, and he’d figure out how to live with it—it was part of who he was, part of his aging body and his Danish blood (as it is part of mine, too, with the nodes now coming up on my own right palm, a piece of what he was that I will carry always with me, to my own grave).

He was the guy who read, constantly, book after book after book. (Memory, from my childhood: Dad stretched out on the living room carpet, head propped in his hands, hardcover propped open in front of him, lost in his book.)

He was a serial hobbyist. When Mom made the mistake of giving him a fish tank (Christmas present I think?) one year, he was off and running and the next thing you know he was collecting cichlids, building huge tanks that showed his fish off like moving museum pieces, writing a monthly column for Aquarium magazine because of course he wanted to share with other people what he’d learned. After he and Mom took a trip to Hawaii it was orchids. He took over one whole end of the living room, turning it into a bank of plant shelves stacked with phalaenopsis and cymbidium and odontoglossum. He got interested another time in woodworking, converted a corner of the basement into a shop, learned how to inlay and dovetail, and any time he took a day trip somewhere he’d had to take a side-trip to some lumberyard to hunt for a new piece of exotic hardwood, and there he was designing jewelry boxes and turning bowls and clerking at the Norwich co-op (and doing their books!)

He loved gadgets. So of course he has the lights in the living room and den voice-controlled. Of course he installed an app so he could close the door to his chicken coop remotely. Of course he bought a fancy growler that uses CO2 cartridges to keep craft beer stored properly under pressure. For my dad, living in this day and time meant he could always be a bit of a kid in a toy store. He never tired of discovering new toys, never lost his delight in showing them off.

But at the same time, he was a country boy to his bones. Which, you may have noticed, is a dying breed, a relic (he might even agree with this) of our lost Jeffersonian America—he didn’t care for cities or crowds, it was his plan from the beginning to pick a spot in the country and build a home and raise a family and tend to the land—his vegetables and fruit trees and nut trees and berry bushes and flowers—and hunt and fish and read and think and make up his own mind on politics and life and God and history and philosophy.

And how many people today tend the same garden for over 50 years? If you were to take a spade down into the wooded slope behind Dad’s garden and try to stick it into the ground you wouldn’t get any further than the layer of leaf litter because your spade would hit his rocks—the piles and piles of rocks that he tossed over his shoulder, year after year every spring—I can see him out there, picking rocks and tossing them over his shoulder down the hill, the rock pile getting higher every year (the way the rocks around Oxford bleach to pale beige in the sun) until suddenly the garden wasn’t rocky any more. He’d changed it. He’d picked so many rocks and tilled in so much compost (lawn clippings and leaves, manure from our pony, Patches, and then later from his chickens, kitchen scraps). And he was so proud that finally, instead of that hard, rocky glacial till that he’d first plowed fifty years ago, his garden is now deep, soft, beautiful loam. You could grow anything in that soil. (And without us even noticing that pile of rocks disappeared under the leaf litter.)

Who these days picks a spot and puts down roots and stays there for 50 years?

You may know that Mom and Dad have been adding to that land, too, over the years—growing it from the first three acres to six, then ten, and then a couple years ago they purchased their biggest chunk so far, a big piece of the wooded acreage between their house and Route 12.

That land east of their house was my real playground growing up: the place I escaped to whenever I could. I knew it by heart. I knew where all the deer trails were and where the deer bedded. I could lead you to a secret patch of sweetfern and to the hollow trees and to the best places to find Spring salamanders (they have gills when they’re young and need cold, pristine water) and Red-Backed salamanders and Northern Slimy salamanders (they can grow to over six inches long). I climbed trees (dangerously high I’m sure) and built shelters and flipped over rocks and caught snakes (garter, milk ring-necked, green) and then brought them home and lost them in the house (sorry Mom).

And then suddenly there I was, the summer of 2018. With Dad, walking his new property line. It’s all overgrown down there, now, the multi-flora rose and wild raspberries that came in after the last time it was logged, so we had to move slowly, watching our footing because under the tangle of brush the ground is littered with the treetops the loggers left behind—and of course now we were also clad head-to-toe in tick-repellent-impregnated pants and long-sleeve shirts and gaiters. But oh how sweet it was to be there with him, him telling me stories about hiking the land with Mom (stories from that year and stories from when we were kids), pointing out the oaks and cherry trees left by the loggers that will one day take over, will join their crowns 100 feet above and shade the earth again, shade out those stupid invasive multi-flora roses. Pointing out the few remaining ancient apple trees, still clinging on from when the hillside was an orchard (or so the story goes). And of course showing me all the saplings he’d planted, because that was his plan, of course, to jumpstart the land’s regeneration, to bring it back to a hardwood forest again. (He was a forestry major before he switched to teaching, did you know that? Before he got sick with the flu in ’57 and missed six weeks of school and transferred out to Cortland and met Mom.) He’d mown trails, chainsawing deadfall logs and branches to clear them (he was 80!) and he’d carved out a new little meadow around that slab of shale we call Big Rock—you have probably seen Big Rock in the pictures he caught with his wildlife cam: pics of coyotes and bobcat and fishers and rabbits and deer.

And I remember years ago, when he had his springer spaniel, Biddy, and how he’d put on his hunting vest (that dog would DANCE ON HER TOES when he pulled out his hunting vest) and disappear down the hill and later he’d be back and we’d have partridge or woodcock for dinner (how I love, still, the taste of real game bird, not that insipid crap “game” you get today in restaurants). And the time I must have stayed out too late, it was getting dark, and I looked up and he was coming toward me through the trees, calling me, and how had he known exactly where I was in all the 30 or 40 acres back there where I used to wander—how had he walked straight to me in the dusk?

And who is going to take care of your land now, Dad? Who is going to keep the trails clear and check on your baby trees and look to see if the morel spore you laid down have finally taken? Who will remember where the ramps come up in the spring?

How can you be gone when you had so much more you wanted to do?

How can we ever find our way in this world without you here with us?

Update: And Then She Followed

Keto keto keto keto keto …

keto breakfast

So I’m resigned to the fact that I will never be able to take really pretty food pictures. But this is what a typical breakfast looks like–just pretend it is has starbursts and stuff.

No, I am not jumping on a fad.

I already jumped–a year ago!

And before I jumped, I already had a nice foundation in place: I’d been doing intermittent fasting for 3 or 4 years before that …

Okay. Being a writer, I could spin out 6000 words on this topic without drawing a breath, so I’ll try to keep it short.

Here’s what happened.

Back in the late 90s/early 2000s I used low carb to slim back down after having a baby. But I thought of it, back then, as a way to lose weight, not as a way to improve other health markers. So after a few months I went back to eating the way I had before.

“The way I’d been eating before” wasn’t the so-called SAD (Standard American Diet) diet fwiw. I haven’t eaten that way since high school. I got on a “whole foods” kick in my early 20s and have been refining it ever since. But it did include quite a few carbs: grains with every meal, desserts (organic ice cream, that sort of thing). Lots of fruit.

But four or five years ago something happened that raised a red flag for me.

It was a busy Saturday. I was out running errands. I hadn’t eaten in several hours–one of those days when eating takes a back seat to other priorities.

I stopped at a Starbucks and ordered a mocha coffee–i.e. sugar laden high carb treat.

And a couple hours later, I crashed. Shaky, nauseous, weak, light-headed–I felt horribly sick.

It wasn’t an unfamiliar feeling. I’d been a “grazer” for a long time, with good reason: I couldn’t go more than 3 or 4 hours without eating, or I’d start to feel those symptoms.

But the intensity of the experience shook me up.

I wasn’t obese. I was working out (weight training) twice a week. But I was carrying probably 10 or 15 extra pounds. That, combined with my sugar crash, was a wake-up call. If I was having this kind of a reaction to sugar now, what was I facing in 5 years, or 10, or 15? Were the extra pounds I had put on as I aged affecting me in ways that were slowly undermining my health? Was my diet really the best diet for me?

I’m a regular reader of the “primal living” health blog at Mark’s Daily Apple, so by then I’d come across a term Mark Sisson coined: “fat-burning beast.” The basic idea is one that keto fans will find familiar. You can train your body to burn fat for energy instead of glucose, and when you do, you break your dependency on carbs. You won’t experience sugar crashes any more. You won’t have to eat all the time any more.

This was before Keto diets were all the rage, but I knew that day that I needed to become a fat-burning beast.

I started intermittent fasting.

There are a lot of different ways to do intermittent fasting. The approach I picked was to fast for 24 hours, breakfast to breakfast, twice a week.

It was really hard at first. More than once I’d hit a wall about 2 in the after noon. My body temp would drop, my energy levels would plummet. I’d have to crawl into bed under the covers to warm up and sleep just to get through it. (Working from home helps!)

But after a few months, my body adapted and holy smokes, what a revelation.

I was no longer dependent on food!

Guys, you know I’m a golfer. I used to have to pack food with me when I golfed so that I could get through a 4-5 hour round without wanting to pass out. Now, all of a sudden, it didn’t matter. I could go out in the morning without eating breakfast and play a round without the slightest discomfort.

And needless to say, no more sugar crashes. And I lost a few pounds which felt good.

Then came the Keto thing. Sisson started blogging about it. He announced he had a book coming out.

I didn’t hesitate. I pre-ordered the book and as soon as it arrived started planning a 6-week Keto clean-out.

That was a year ago. This week, my sweetheart and I are doing the 6-week thing for the second time :)

To me, Keto delivers the same effects as fasting. Energy levels that are both high and steady; clear mind; body gets that lovely, compact feeling (versus the bloated feeling I get when I’ve been eating too many carbs).

We also found that the effects of a six-week Keto clean-out last–really for the whole rest of the year. I still fast from time to time but it’s more of a touch-point now. Being “keto-adapted,” I don’t ever need to eat (freedom!!!) Going 24 or even 48 hours without eating doesn’t faze me. I energizer bunny right through :)

It also kind of pulled our diet in a keto direction even though we didn’t bother staying in “strict keto” once the six weeks was up. If I was at a restaurant and they put out fresh Italian bread with olive oil, I’d eat a slice and enjoy it. OTOH if I was hungry for a burger I’d order it without a bun. I.e. I didn’t seek out carbs, but I didn’t shun them.

Keto is definitely a fad today, with all the hoopla you get with diet fads. People denouncing it as dangerous, blah blah blah. Or defining keto erroneously (“you eat pounds of meat every day! and no veggies!” yeah right…) and then clapping themselves on the back for knocking their straw man over.

Silly. Not even going to bother engaging on that stuff. Go read Sisson if you want thoughtful, in-depth, science-based considerations of dietary arguments.

What I also see a lot of is people who–let me put this nicely–need a bit of help understanding how to do it.

So at the risk of turning this post into an all-Sisson read: I really recommend Sisson’s book, The Keto Reset Diet: Reboot Your Metabolism in 21 Days and Burn Fat Forever (affiliate link).

Actually, let me amend that: if you are thinking about doing keto for the first time, just go buy the book.

Because it’s about preparing yourself for keto. And you owe it to yourself to build a foundation if you’re new to keto–and especially if you are like I was: the sort of person who needs to eat every couple of hours to keep your energy levels steady.

Going keto “cold turkey” can make you feel like crap. Just like I felt that day years ago when I sugar crashed from my mocha coffee.

But if you prepare your body, things will be easier. And if you have a framework–a little bit of the science–you’ll understand what you’re doing and how to do it right.

Plus the book has a bunch of recipes and we found most of them to be absolutely delicious. So there’s that, too–you can plan your menus without having to hunt for ideas.

Happy ketoing!

Small town, alumni weekend.

If you know me, you know I grew up in a small town.

What a blessing it was.

I saw so many people this weekend who I haven’t seen in years–30, 40 years in some cases.

I’ve been trying for a couple days to put words around something … trying to articulate how people can be so altered and at the same time even more themselves.

Then this morning it came to me: “tempered.” We’ve been tempered.

The things that have happened to us that burned so hot–

By which I mean not only the painful (losing the loved one, the marriage that went bad, that tore up, tore us up) but anything extraordinary. The day you look at your kid and it strikes you, this person here, this extraordinary person who is part of you but not, the center of your life but free to go  and then one day gone but never really gone. That heat, also.

The decisions we make. (I’m moving away. I’m moving back. I’ll take this job. I’ll quit. I’m going to fight this thing. I’m done fighting …)

Tempered by the heat of the extraordinary, and the extraordinary is anything that heats the heart.

It burns off what doesn’t matter and leaves what does. And you can see what’s left in peoples’ faces, in how they stand. It doesn’t even take words.

I love you all so much.

I’m so blessed, to have grown up in a small town.

I love you all so very, very much.

In which I lose my mind possibly? and start fermenting vegetables :D

Fermenting vegetables. On the left: shredded beets with grated ginger and cayenne pepper. On the right: sliced sweet potato, celery, and chipotle pepper.

On the left: shredded beets with grated ginger and cayenne pepper. On the right: sliced sweet potato, celery, and chipotle pepper.

It started when I became interested in so-called “Resistant Starch” — a class of starches that are not digested in the small intestine, but instead pass through to the colon, where they become food for gut flora, including critters that are implicated in everything from weight loss/control to cooling inflammation.

I blogged about RS here. Also recommend Free the Animal, where Richard Nikoley has been rounding up info on RS and is writing a book on it with a couple other RS hero peeps. Details at his blog including his RS primer here.

From incorporating RS into my diet, I’ve now moved to two other refinements. First is adding other prebiotics, for example inulin, which I get by munching on things like raw sliced Jerusalem artichoke.

The second is more probiotics. Continue reading

Are you afraid?

weird cloudsMany years ago, a very wise person who was listening to me talk about some problem I was wrestling stopped me and said, “Why are you holding your breath?”

I’ll never forget that question. It was a pivot point in my life — one of those moments which mark the end of one thing and the beginning of something else. I had, before that day, believed that I was a brave person. But the moment I stopped holding my breath, feelings I’d been pushing down for years suddenly rose up in all their demonic magnificence.

I was terrified. I was a quivering coward. Those “brave” acts of mine — the time I’d quit college, the leaps I’d made into relationships — they were covers, they were things I’d done not because I was brave but in order to hide my fear from myself.

I’ve had throughout my life what I refer to as moments of bravado — a sudden urge to push myself beyond my fear in some big way.

That’s from a lovely and insightful essay on fear (and also btw on love) by Jana Richman in the New York Times.

I would add this: fear is a function of the physical body, in many ways. Many of us tend to live so much in our heads that we forget this. It’s important to pay attention to the body, and to calm it the way you would a child or a pet. It helps . . .

of the 1 or 2 . . .

Of the 1 or 2 bad habits

that have crept back in since you moved

there is this:

that I take books to bed.

They accumulate

in the space that was once yours.

take up more and more room

as if I need anything more to disturb my sleep

Thank you, Thermos

After my recent BPA-in-a-can upset I made a big pot of homemade soup for my daughter’s lunches.

Then it occurred to me: what if her Thermos food jar is BPA lined?

Phew! My FUNtainer Thermos food jar is BPA free.

Phew! My FUNtainer Thermos food jar is BPA free.

Good news: it’s not. I just got an email from a Thermos spokesperson I found on their website stating “Our FUNtainer line of food jars and beverage bottles has always been BPA-free, and continues to be as well.”

I’m so glad!

Now I just need to perfect my soup recipe. I’m trying to copy my daughter’s favorite choice from the now-on-my-boycott-list Hain line of Imagine soups: tomato-based broth, meatballs, navy beans, orzo.

My first attempt bears some similarities, she says, but that’s about as far as she was willing to go. Tough customer.

Back to the ol’ cutting board . . .