Tag Archives: anxiety

Thoughts on thinking, or, what have we done to ourselves by over-emphasizing abstract thought?

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I was already mulling this topic when, this morning, a video of a deer popped up on my twitter feed.

The video shows a buck maneuver his rack so he can get under a gate.

Here’s four screen grabs so you can see how he did it.

approaches gate
lowers head to get left-side antlers under
twists head to get right-side antlers under
done

It’s striking, isn’t it?

But to my eye, this maneuver also demonstrates something profound about reality and about how we think.

It embodies a type of thinking.

Literally.

We think with our bodies.

Notice how we respond to this video of the deer by saying “clever deer” or “smart animal.” That’s a tell. We recognize that what we’re seeing is a kind of thought, a kind of intelligence.

The deer has “figured something out.” It’s “solved a problem.”

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Data dreams

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It’s long past time to draw a line between actual data and fantasy “models” — and set public policy accordingly

Over on Facebook, I linked to an essay by the Swedish writer Malcom Kyeyune titled Why the Experts are Losing, which elicited this comment from a (dear) friend:

So, when dealing with complicated things, who should one listen to if not someone who actually knows the topic? And what should one look at besides data?

Many of the people who we have elevated to the position of “expert” are not experts at all. They are, to be blunt, fools. Photo by Rachel on Unsplash

The comment got me thinking about data.

Specifically, it got me thinking about a mistake that I think people make when they look at “data” and “research consensus” as the basis of their policy preferences.

Because of course we need to base policy on data.

But many people are making a huge mistake when they cite “data” — a mistake that is tied closely to our reliance on “experts.”

There is a WORLD of difference between “data” that is based on actual reality — meaning data collected on something that has happened — and “data” that is generated by computer modeling — meaning “data” that predicts something that is supposedly likely to happen in the future.

Models are not reality.

It’s my observation that many people overlook that distinction…

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Now, this should be required reading

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For everyone who follows the news.

Struck by Lightning by Jeffrey S. Rosenthal.

In a review in The Sydney Morning Herald, David Messer writes:

Tear up your lottery tickets. Scrap that plan to visit the casino. This easy-to-read guide to probability by Canadian mathematician Jeffrey Rosenthal quickly illuminates the folly of such activities. But it’s not all bad: as he explains, an understanding of probability will also allow us to stop worrying about plane crashes, crime rates, opinion polls, disease and maybe even spam.

The sad fact is that the media tends to feed a state of constant, low-grade anxiety. And when we’re in a state of constant, low-grade anxiety, we are less likely to get a clear read on actual threats when we encounter them.

Fear is supposed to be a gift, as per Gavin De Becker. We need to use that gift wisely, not squander it on abstractions.