In the last few pages of Annie Duke’s Thinking in Bets, she mentions the work of Gabriele Oettinger, who — via 20 years’ worth of research — determined that people who imagine obstacles to achieving their goals are more likely to succeed than people who imagine purely positive outcomes.

Apparently Oetthinger proposes that if you consider obstacles, you become energized to overcome them.

Duke goes on to talk about how being open to the possibility of failure is effective in groups (corporate teams, for example) because it removes the stigma associated with being overly negative. Or seeming to be overly negative. Which gives the group flexibility to think more broadly and prepare for potential setbacks.

But I wonder whether there’s something else at play, also. Perhaps positive thinking — if it is forced or artificial — can function as a kind of denialism or denialist behavior that sublimates doubts/uncertainties/fears and thereby empowers them.

I believe I’ve observed that dynamic, personally. Have you?